Can as-is value ever be higher than ARV?

Not meaningfully. For a house needing work, as-is sits below ARV by roughly the renovation cost plus the discount buyers demand for taking on the project. For a fully updated house the two numbers converge — there's no repair gap left to close.

Which number do I use to make an offer?

It depends on your exit. A flipper or wholesaler prices from ARV using the 70% rule. A landlord or creative-finance buyer keeping the house as-is prices from as-is value and the income it produces today. Same house, two different defensible offers.

Is the Zestimate an as-is value or an ARV?

Closer to as-is — automated models estimate the property roughly in its current state, assuming typical condition for its age and area. They can miss badly on distressed houses, but they are definitely not modeling a renovated exit.

What's the fastest way to check if a flip deal works?

Compare the spread to the work: ARV minus as-is value is the value the renovation creates. If that gap isn't comfortably larger than the rehab budget plus selling and holding costs, the project destroys money and the house is a rental or a pass, not a flip.

As-Is Value vs. ARV: Which Number to Use for Every Strategy

Every property that needs work has two prices, and most bad offers come from using the wrong one. The dated 3/2 is “worth” $145,000 and also “worth” $205,000 — both true, for different buyers with different plans. Knowing which number drives which strategy is what separates a defensible offer from a guess.

The two numbers, defined

As-is value is what the property would sell for today, exactly as it sits — the tarped roof, the 1987 kitchen, all of it priced in. It comes from comps in similar unrenovated condition and from automated valuation models, which approximate current condition.

ARV (after-repair value) is what the property will sell for after a renovation brings it to the standard of the nicest comps nearby. It comes exclusively from renovated sales. (Full method in ARV explained.)

The gap between them is the value the renovation creates. That gap is also the first sanity check on any rehab deal: if ARV minus as-is is $45,000 and the rehab costs $50,000, the renovation destroys money no matter how good the finishes look.

The rule: match the number to the exit

Here’s the principle we built PropTitan’s valuation engine around, and it’s worth internalizing even if you never use the software: a strategy’s value basis is the condition the property will be in at that strategy’s money moment.

Strategies that exit or refinance AFTER a rehab price from ARV:

Flip — you sell a renovated house, so the sale price is the ARV.
Wholesale — your end buyer is a flipper whose exit is post-rehab, so the entire offer chain (the 70% rule, your MAO, your fee) hangs off ARV even though the house trades as-is today.
BRRRR — the refinance appraisal happens after the rehab, so the loan is sized from ARV (typically ARV × 70–75% loan-to-value). Pricing a BRRRR refi off as-is value understates your cash-out and kills good deals on paper.
Novation — you’re selling renovated (or refreshed) on the open market; the retail exit is ARV-based.

Strategies that acquire and keep the property as it sits price from as-is value:

Buy and hold — you’re buying today’s house and today’s rent. The equity you actually hold on day one is measured against as-is value, not against a renovation you aren’t doing.
Subject-to — you’re taking over the existing loan against the property in its current condition; your equity position and protection are as-is questions.
Owner finance — same logic: the collateral securing the note is the house as it sits.

Run a rental’s numbers off ARV and you’ll invent equity you don’t have. Run a flip off as-is value and you’ll pass on every deal in America. Same house, two honest numbers, two different jobs.

A worked example

Take that dated 3/2: as-is value $145,000, ARV $205,000, rehab $40,000.

The flipper prices from ARV: 70% × $205,000 − $40,000 = $103,500 max offer. Their $60,000 spread over as-is is what pays for the project and the profit.
The wholesaler needs the contract below $103,500 by their fee — say $95,000 for an $8,500 assignment.
The landlord buying it as a rental with light make-ready doesn’t care about the $205,000 — their offer is anchored to the $145,000 as-is value and what the house rents for this month. They might rationally pay $120,000–$130,000 — more than the flipper’s ceiling.

That last line is the practical payoff: when a deal is too thin for flip math, it may still be a perfectly good as-is deal for a different buyer. Two valuations means two ways to monetize the same lead.

Getting both numbers without doing the work twice

Traditionally you’d comp the property twice — once against dated sales, once against renovated ones. This is exactly why PropTitan runs dual valuation on every property: it produces the as-is value and the ARV side by side, then anchors each strategy’s math to the correct basis automatically — flips, wholesale, and BRRRR to ARV; buy-and-hold, sub-to, and owner finance to as-is. You see in one screen whether a lead is a flip, a rental, or nothing. See the comps and ARV feature for how the two numbers are built.

The discipline

Before you write any offer, say the exit out loud, then ask: what condition is the house in when the money moves? Renovated → ARV. As it sits → as-is. Then check the spread between the two numbers against the rehab budget before anything else — it’s the fastest deal filter there is. You can pressure-test both values on any deal with the free ARV calculator.

Two numbers, matched to two kinds of exits. Get the pairing right and your offers defend themselves.